NMDC shares are trading 66 percent lower from its all-time high of Rs 190 per share. Kotak Institutional Equities has issued a ‘Sell’ call with a price target of Rs 55, projecting a downside of 15.4 percent from the last closing price of Rs 65. NMDC’s volumes have remained flat on-year in the first 11 months of FY25, falling short of 10 percent growth target. The Karnataka government has proposed an additional 22.5 percent royalty and a mineral right tax of Rs 101 per tonne, a move that could dent NMDC’s EBITDA by 14 percent if applied in Karnataka and by 47 percent if extended nationwide in FY26. At about 1:10 pm, shares of the company were trading at Rs 64.46, lower by 2.23 percent from last close on the NSE. The brokerage sees significant downside risks to consensus earnings, which it believes underestimate the impact of price and volume pressures. Seaborne iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure through CY2025-27, driven by two key factors, weakening Chinese demand and rising domestic supply within China. Potential protectionist measures against China’s steel exports and their sluggish domestic consumption could lead to lower steel production, dampening global iron ore demand.